When I first realized that you can and SHOULD be measuring ball exit speed, the speed the ball comes off the bat. I was mostly interested in what players could do from the tee.
This showed me their RAW power with no added variables that could be measured and compared to any other hitter, at any time. As well as a simple measurement that could be documented and tracked throughout time without adding additional variables. When hitting flips, batting practice or live pitching so many other variables come into play, location, speed, among several others that could create a higher exit velocity or prevent a player from ever reaching their potential exit velocity.
However, after watching hundreds of Exit Velocities being showcased off the tee, using HitTrax, and studying trending results in different environments that translate to game speed. Exit Velocity from the tee holds very little value from an evaluative perspective.
Watching players light up the radar gun with ground balls to short (on a ball that isn’t even moving) gives me very little data on what they can do as a hitter. For one, it is the norm to hit ground balls at higher exit speeds, but pre-dominantly hitting ground balls does not produce as high of an average or contribute as much to run production as hard line drives, preferably measured at 19 to 26 degree launch angles, therefore that is where I want to know their potential exit velocities and if they can re-create that power in the air.
Secondly, I want to know how adjustable they are. If a player has a 100mph exit velocity from a tee but can’t hit water if it fell out of a boat in a game speed environment, that measurement can be deceiving to the overall value of that hitter.
Exit Velocity plays much better than Launch Angle overall, all of the data supports the harder you hit the ball, the better chance you have of getting a “hit,” Which is why another thing I’m very interested in is a players Hard Hit Average (HHA). HHA is any ball within 10% of a player max exit velocity which should be tested from regular batting practice, machine, or live environments, and then re-tested in those same environments. A player can have a very high HHA but lower than normal average velocity, while also have a higher avg. velocity but having a lower HHA. Our interests lie in how many balls are getting squared up in each environment. See the table below:
| Exit Speed (assuming max is 86mph) | Average Exit Velocity |
| 78mph | 78mph |
| 68mph | 73mph |
| 80mph | 75.33mph |
| 77mph | 75.75mph |
| 66mph | 73.8mph |
| 81mph | 75mph |
| 78mph | 75.42mph |
| 69mph | 74.63mph |
| 70mph | 74.11mph |
| 78mph | 74.5mph |
As you can see the average velocity dips below under a 10mph difference against this players max velocity which is a little low. Some coaches are looking to be within an 8-10mph difference from avg. velocity to max velocity. While functionally we like those numbers, we want to focus our energy on consistently timing up our very best swing rather than being overly adjustable and making too much “solid” contact and not enough “hard contact.” This doesn’t ALWAYS translate exactly to a higher average velocity, but typically a higher HHA using that mindset. Above, the HHA would have been .400 where below a lower avg. velocity can result in a higher HHA. See table below:
| Exit Speed (assuming max is 86mph) | Average Exit Velocity |
| 85mph | 85mph |
| 40mph | 62.5mph |
| 86mph | 70.33mph |
| 61mph | 68mph |
| 82mph | 70.8mph |
| 52mph | 67.66mph |
| 79mph | 69.28mph |
| 80mph | 70.63mph |
| 65mph | 70mph |
| 85mph | 71.5mph |
The HHA average jumps to .600 a 20% increase despite the average velocity dropping an entire 3mph. This indicates “better hits” happened more often which is the goal we are trying to achieve to build positive trends on offense. These are numbers that you can record off the tee but without adding important variables it doesn’t give the entire picture of how valuable a player is on offense, for example: a HHA of .600 may not play as well, as a HHA of .400, see below:
| Exit Speed (assuming max is 86mph) HHA .600 | Result |
| 85mph | Ground Ball to Short – OUT |
| 40mph | Ground Ball to Pitcher – OUT |
| 86mph | Line Drive to Left – 2B |
| 61mph | Ground Ball to Second – OUT |
| 82mph | Ground Ball to Left – 1B |
| 52mph | Pop Fly to first – OUT |
| 79mph | Ground Ball to Second – OUT |
| 80mph | Line Drive to Left – OUT |
| 65mph | Ground Ball to Pitcher – OUT |
| 85mph | Ground Ball to third -OUT |
| Exit Speed (assuming max is 86mph) HHA .400 | Average Exit Velocity |
| 78mph | Line Drive to Left Center – 1B |
| 68mph | Ground ball to second – OUT |
| 80mph | Fly Ball to Right Center – 2B |
| 77mph | Line Drive to Center – 1B |
| 66mph | Ground Ball to Short – OUT |
| 81mph | Line Drive to Left – 2B |
| 78mph | Line Drive to Right – 1B |
| 69mph | Fly ball to center – OUT |
| 70mph | Fly ball to Left – OUT |
| 78mph | Line Drive to Short – OUT |
So, if we are looking to discover trends to determine the potential value of a hitter simply by using isolated metrics we have to be careful that it tells the entire story. A higher average exit velocity doesn’t always translate to more hard hits, and more hard hits don’t always translate to the best result (if we are simply measuring from a tee) Therefore we can test and work to improve HHA as well as average exit velocity in challenging hitting environments, or performance zones such as live pitching, simulated life using a Hack Attack off-set for righty and/or lefty release points mixing up pitches rather than training zones such as tee work, flips, and batting practice.
I think overtime this will change the dynamic for recruiting, summer ball, off-season training and more. Technology will begin to take over, things like HitTrax, Trackman, and Rapsodo and even newer technology will be in every HS, college, and training facility over the next decade if not sooner. Then it will be about recording the correct data and getting even deeper. Looking on film at what specific pitch was thrown, going back to that pitch on the HitTrax machine, recording the point of contact, looking back at the film to see what the ball did as it descended toward the hitter and how the hitter handled it.
That information will then need to be quantified in order to give college coaches, and pro-scouts the best possible data they can on recruiting players, High School coaches can use 100% objective data to determine the best players for their potential teams and THEN look at things like culture, effort, and attitude. (Side note: while those things are MOST important, your most talented players should have the types of intangibles coaches look for anyway, and probably will. Test talent, recruit character. A high character player with no skill will not win championships, just like a high talent player with no character may cost you a championship.)
In conclusion, objective data is the most valuable thing we can look at when assessing TALENT if it is addressed in the right environments and not skewed leaving out important metrics.