This get’s deep! #BeAResourceNotAGuru #BeDifferent #DataDriven
I saw a post on social media the other day, that apparently had Dissected the first image of Altuve below, which basically made the claim that Altuve is a better hitter when he hits the ball below 15 degrees because he has an average of .434 and thus focusing on lifting the ball is “Hype” and not in fact a concept or metric that can help ALL hitters.
We actually agree, sort of….. Simply in the sense that ideal launch angles should be dependent on the hitter and their overall average exit velocity while taking their foot speed into consideration. The post was made from an account we as a company, and as individual coaches respect very much and therefore took the time to do a little more research not only for our own knowledge but to share, and we found some interesting trends.
To give some perspective, a Zero degree launch angle will be parallel with the ground. Positive numbers displaying an upward trajectory, and negative displaying a downward trajectory.
So to start, the image below displaying Alutve’s specific launch angle’s along with his hits per at bats, is from a Statcast Twitter post dating February 23rd, 2016. I deduced this must have been from the 2015 season. It was coupled with a similar post of Brandon Belt from the San Francisco Giants, who produced a higher batting average with higher launch angles, somewhat confirming the point of what I think the original post I saw was trying to make.
However, both hitters had their highest batting average between 10 and 15 degrees or essentially the bottom threshold of a line drive. Statcast has shown data time and time again that coincides with the theory that Line Drives are the best hit baseballs and most productive results. The Statcast definition of a line drive is a launch angle between 10 – 25 degrees.
In that image, there are only 19 balls in play that Altuve hit that could be considered “Line Drives” below a 15 degree launch angle as stated in the post that I reviewed, where he collectively hit .434.
He hit 14 of those 19 producing a .737 batting average.
Altuve recorded 19 hits out of 24 balls in play between 5 and 10 degrees, producing a .792 BA per this chart. (It is important to know this does not say how many were closer to 10 degrees than they were 5 degrees)
Among his 24 balls in play between 5 and 10 degrees, he also hits his highest average exit velo in this range per this chart at 93.9mph which can correlate to but not show definitively the importance of Exit Velocity against launch angle as well. However, I have included a chart demonstrating the probability of a hit using statcast data from 2016 which records exit velo against launch angle.
Now that we have discussed the lower threshold of his line drives. I moved my study over to the next 10 degree segment in both directions.
First, let’s look at the balls in question that were “lifted” which apparently begins 15 to 20 degrees according to the original post in question. he records 14 hits out of 39 balls in play and collects 2 HR which hitting .359 and averaging a lower exit velo of 88.8mph indicates he does not square up as many balls at that particular launch angle which can be caused by several different variables, bat path and/or timing.
(In theory, if Altuve is capable of averaging 93.9mph exit velo’s, he could do so at a higher launch angle, not necessarily making the launch angle at fault but rather the exit velocity in which he hit those launch angles.) Side Note: You won’t hear us attempt to correct an MVP candidate, this is a study on metrics and if Launch Angle or “lifting” the ball is valuable or just “hype”
When Altuve reaches 20 to 25 degree launch angles, he gathers 13 hits out of 31 balls in play, averaging .419 with 4 HR.
According to all of the balls he hits within the Line Drive category, he records an average of .460 with 6 HR, averaging an exit velo below 90mph. Unfortunately that does not include the other extra base hits that would contribute to his slugging% during this time.
Now on the other side, Between 0 and 5 degrees, Altuve knocks 18 hits out of 36 balls in play recording an average exit velo of 91.7mph and batting .500.
Between -5 and 0 degrees, he collects 19 hits of 40 balls in play hitting .475 with only an average velo of 87.4mph.
So in all, we’ve covered -5 degrees to 25 degrees, a smaller sample size to work with and still verify’s the original point made that Altuve has a higher batting average when he is not “lifting” the ball…. so far.
On balls in play between -5 and 10 degrees, Altuve goes 56 for 100 hitting .560. He also records his highest average exit velocity between these launch angles.
On balls in play between 10 and 25 degrees, Altuve goes 31 for 89 hitting .348 and collecting 6 HR. (note: larger sample size)
Now it get’s interesting, for Altuve, he put 89 balls in play according to this chart above 25 degrees, or “mishits” as we already established that our goal should Line Drives between 10 and 25 degrees.
Out of those 89 balls, he only collected 10 hits, with a depressing .112 batting average but added 7 HR. He also hit those balls with an average exit velo well below 87mph. Of those mishits, 29 were above 45 degrees where he recorded 0 hits or “pop outs”
However, he mishit a whopping 146 balls at launch angles -5 and lower. In doing so, his average exit velo dropped drastically, but he still managed to record 45 hits, in which at least 3 were successful bunts for a hits which we can eliminate as it doesn’t factor into this discussion. These mishits produced a .293 batting average for Jose.
The “lift” conversation is important because it has everything to do with intent and how the neurons in your brain connect with your body to produce higher exit velo’s and more line drives. This is what is called an external cue, rather than an internal cue.
In 2015 Jose Altuve struck out 67 times and hit .313, slugging .459 with an OPS of .812.
In 2016 Altuve managed to DECREASE his fly ball rate by only 3% where his ground ball rate DECREASED by 5% giving him AN INCREASED line drive rate that increased by 6%.
Altuve then hit .338, 25 points higher than the year before with a lower ground ball percentage, despite bunting more than in the previous year. He also slugged 72 points higher than in his previous year, with an OPS .116 points higher.
To me, this still isn’t good enough to make a valid argument, we are still talking about correlations and not hard evidence, two seasons, one player, any number of variables could have effected this. Our goal is to collect data and make a conclusion, not make a conclusion and then find data that supports it.
In an effort to do that, we can look at Jose Altuve’s trends in the league since the start of his career. (I’ll be the first to say, you can factor in the fact he has more experience now as well, excluding the influx of spin rates, and increased velocity on the mound)
From 2011 to 2012, he INCREASED his ground ball rate by 3%, DECREASED his fly ball rate, while maintaining his line drive rate, and added .14 points to his batting average. This would support the original argument that not all players benefit from overall increased launch angles.
However, from 2012 to 2017 he has slowly INCREASED HIS FLY BALL RATE by 7%, and DECREASED HIS GROUND BALL RATE by the same amount, his LINE DRIVES have fluctuated between 18% and 26% reaching his career high 26% when he batted .338 in 2016.
With consistent improved averages year to year, Altuve has added .58 points to his career high single season batting average since his first full season in 2012 and also, over .20 points to his career average. He has also not batted below .300 since 2013. This supports our theory, that focusing on eliminating ground balls and focusing on Line Drive and Deep Fly Balls can help all hitters to some extent.
So you can get a gauge on what you should be doing in the cage, I’ve also included some shots showcasing the ball, on a 73′ long net at around a lazy 70 – 75ish MPH exit velo. These are what the line drive launch angles look like. In fact I hit the 11 degree launch angle at around only 70mph and it was on it’s way down already before it hit the back, that picture is stopped at it’s highest point, of course with more velo it would have continued to go higher. The other photo’s are as they hit the net.
Last but not least, Jose Altuve is on pace to strikout more than he has in any other year, but also maintain the highest batting avg. he has ever had. I left a little Jose Altuve Quote nugget down there too.
